Why Biden and the Dems Really, REALLY Need to Court Male Voters
When holding the White House, the Democrats have consistently LOST male voters in subsequent elections; Biden can't do much worse than last time and still win in 2024.
In the Electoral College, Republicans have a “structural advantage” of about 4% of the vote, meaning experts note that Democrats need to win the popular vote by 4% or more to win the Electoral vote, and therefore, the White House. So the Democrats, unfortunately, always have an uphill climb.
The reason I like looking at male and female exit poll data is that you see a representation of almost the whole electorate in just a few data points — it’s amazing the stories this dataset tells. In recent years, Democrats have been doing a great job, in my opinion, of focusing on women’s issues, including supporting a woman’s right to choose. And we see the results in voting. Women have been voting Democrat by +12-16%, so if this trend continues, as I suspect it will, Democrats just need to do not too badly with men to likely win.
Let’s look at just the male exit poll data going back to 1972 to observe a disturbing trend for Democrats -- after they win the White House, they tend to lose male votes over subsequent elections, whether they run an incumbent or a new candidate. Unfortunately, this is bad news for the Democrats, indicated by downward areas on the graph below.
Carter, Bill Clinton, Gore, Obama, and Hillary Clinton all followed this pattern as shown by those 5 downward arrows. Bill Clinton and Obama had enough to hold on to a second term, Carter didn’t, and Gore and Hillary Clinton didn’t win a first. Will Biden hold on for a second term, or be a repeat of Carter’s fate? If he does worse than -8% with men, he will probably lose.
In my earlier post Biden -18% with Men, I show how since 1972, the Democrats have never lost when they poll at -8% or better with men and never won when they’re lower than that. Hence the “Magic Number” of -8%.
The problem this time around is that Biden polled at -8% with male voters in 2020, so I believe he can’t go down much further and still win in 2024. If you put another downward blue arrow on that graph in 2024, Biden will be so low with male voters that the positive female vote may not be enough to make up the difference.
The closest election was 2000 when Gore polled at -11% with male voters, and but for a few votes in Florida (plus a host of election issues, of course), he could have won. So it’s theoretically possible for a Democrat to win doing even worse than -8% with men, maybe -9% or -10%, but why risk it? Why not work hard to get that number up to -4%, or even just break even with men? Doing so greatly increases the Democratic party’s chance of winning the White House in 2024 and beyond.
The Democratic strategy to court male voters should be two-fold:
While continuing to support women’s issues, start to acknowledge male gender issues, and create policies to help men and boys throughout the United States. Create a White House Council on Male Health and Longevity, create Democratic male voters groups, and support state and local men and boys policy commissions. All of this should be a part of what I call the “All Demographic Strategy,” similar to the 50-state strategy employed by Gov. Howard Dean that led to Democratic success in 2006-12.
While continuing to support women’s issues in messaging, also add direct messaging to male voters, supported by the actions taken in item #1. Give canvassers and phone bankers something to say to appeal to the male voters they encounter as they currently can with all the support they show for women and girls.
If the Biden and Democratic Party fail to do this, I believe they run a very real risk of losing in 2024. It is possible that they could continue with their current strategy and eke out a victory. But by employing my “All Demographic Strategy,” they can both have a better chance to win in 2024 and at the same time start building a more solid base for future elections. And this strategy ultimately benefits Democrat women, as well, as it keeps the party that they feel supports them in office.
Expand HUD, incentivize states to expand job training programs for men.