Biden -18% with Men: Yes, the Democrats should be worried about the latest NYT-Siena Swing State Poll
This poll created a lot of headlines, and rightfully so. Looking at the historic gender voting gap, the Dems need to shoot for better than -8% with men. That's a 10% difference.
The recent New York Times-Siena poll of registered voters in the all-important battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, showed Biden trailing Trump by 18% among potential male voters and clinging to a very weak 8% lead among female voters1. While it’s true that we are almost a year out, and polls always contain a certain margin of error, these numbers should be ringing alarm bells for Democrats. There were also some good election outcomes for Democrats for this week, notably the Ohio abortion amendment vote and the election of Democrat Governor Andy Beshear in Kentucky.
However, the bad polling numbers should not be ignored. If I were running the Democratic campaign, I would do everything I could, starting yesterday, to court male voters in these states. This includes implementing policies that would be supportive of men, so they feel like they have something to vote for, as well as messaging that is directed at men. And by men, I mean all men, of all demographics, as part of what I call the All Demographic Strategy. The Dems also need to do better with female voters, but they are vocally supportive of important issues for female voters, such as reproductive rights, and seem to have a plan to address them.
Let’s take a look again and voting history by gender as we did last week in my post A Man Without a Party, but this time I’ve added some more data — a D and an R at the bottom to show who won, and a “Magic Line” at Men = -8%, a line above which Democrats have never lost, and below which they have never won.
Every time the male vote is above the “Magic Line,” the Democratic candidate won; below the “Magic Line,” the Republican candidate won.
Since 1972, if Democrats got within 8% or better of the Republicans on the male vote, they won. This happened in 1976, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012, and 2020.
The best the democrats have done with male voters was +4% by Carter in 1976, and +3% by Bill Clinton in 1992.
The worst the Democrats have done with male voters was -26% in 1972 and -25% in 1984.
If Republicans won the male vote by more than 8%, they won the election every time. This happened in 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, and 2016.
The recent NYT-Siena poll is somewhat different in that it only polled 6 swing states, whereas the data in the chart is national polling, but I believe it’s very important data nonetheless. Trailing men by 18% in those states is not a winning formula, in my opinion. They need to repair the Democratic Disconnect with male voters and close that gap to at most -8%, preferably less.
I will continue to follow these polls and other indicators of male voter preferences in this crucial election season and share my insights here.
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Next week: The importance of party platforms, and considering the value of International Men’s Day.
Looking at the NYT-Siena College poll from Oct. 2023, published on Nov. 5, 2023, under the question “(Includes leaners) Thinking about the upcoming presidential election in 2024, if the election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?” Men responded 37% for Biden, and 55% for Trump, or -18% for Biden. Women responded 50% for Biden, 42% for Trump, or +8% for Biden.