What a week in SF! Harris takes the baton, my book event, and multiple interviews
There was a lot happening in San Francisco and in the election this week!
It certainly felt like the most intense week of the election so far, both nationally on the Democratic front with Biden dropping out and endorsing Harris, and for me personally as I focused on my book event for How Democrats Can Win Back Men at Manny’s in San Francisco. I’ve also conducted four media interviews for my book so far which I’ll share soon.
A number of folks have written to me asking how the change of candidate affects my book and my thesis — I’ll get to that more below, but mostly it doesn’t affect it that much. Democrats still need to get to at least -8% among men, and hopefully better. There are some different dynamics with any new candidate, but overall I think the change is good for Democrats as Harris has rapidly energized the base.
A Few Thank You’s
But first, I want to thank everyone who was able to attend my book event on Thursday, July 25 at Manny’s. I would also like to express gratitude to the many who were not able to attend but sent notes of encouragement — those really helped me prepare!
It was such a unique week with Biden dropping out and the rapid ascension of San Francisco’s own VP Kamala Harris to be the presumptive Democratic nominee. Messaging about appealing to male voters in an extremely far-left city, just days after the local woman of color who may become the first women president in the history of the US took the baton, requires some nuance.
But happily, the message was very well received, including by Manny himself who introduced me and my moderator for the evening Nevada Westberg (thank you Nevada!). A video of the event will be available soon. Also, the Washington Post just wrote a front-page story on Manny’s and took a photo of the event just after mine!
Just for fun, here’s an image of Manny with VP Kamala Harris in the same space at a recent event. You can view a video of her visit on Manny’s Instagram page.
For anyone looking to hold an event in San Francisco, I highly recommend Manny’s! On top of having a great vibe and community, the staff is extremely helpful! Special thanks to Luis who helped everything come off flawlessly.
New Presumptive Democratic Nominee: VP Kamala Harris
Okay, now let’s look at the really big news of the week: Biden’s dropping out, endorsing Harris, and the surge of donations and activity that followed. In all my years of watching or to some degree being involved in elections, I’ve never seen such a quick seismic shift. There are those who hoped for an open convention and a vetting of candidates. While that viewpoint is understandable, for practical purposes, I believe it’s a moot point. Supporters point out that Harris was on the ticket with Biden, so it’s a natural progression, one that even campaign finance law allows for.
Early polling is showing some positive indicators for Harris, but I like to wait at least a couple of weeks for the initial excitement to die down and see how the momentum has changed. That said, the uptick in energy from Democrats is undeniable.
Just as I advised when Biden was the candidate, the Democrats should include several non-controversial male issues in the 2024 Democratic Party Platform; the document is typically made public ahead of the Democratic National Convention and ratified there. Believe it or not, this is one of the biggest announcements of the year from my vantage point. I’ve tried sending messages to the DCCC, and spoken to folks at the DNC (who referred me back to the DCCC), and some others. I’m continuing to try to find an avenue to provide input, but it’s tough going. Monday night there is a call for “White Dudes for Harris,” so I will attend that and see what it’s like.
I think the first thing Democrats need to know is that they NEED to do at least somewhat well among men -- according to my research of the exit poll data, since 1972 Dems have never won when they are worse than -8% among men. So they should aim for at least better than that. This is extremely important. And though many women voters will be motivated to cast their ballots for Harris, that doesn’t make victory a slam dunk. Dems still need to focus on men, too. Dems made this mistake in 1984 when Reagan ended up crushing Mondale and his VP pick, Geraldine Ferraro, the first women VP nominee, and in 2016 when Trump upset Hillary Clinton. According to exit poll data, Hillary actually performed worse among women in 2016 than Joe Biden did in 2020, at +13% compared to +15%. So just fielding a female candidate doesn’t ensure a dramatic increase in women’s votes.
I suggest that Democrats create targeted outreach to men (which I urged when Biden was the candidate, as well). We know that men care about the economy and security, but those appeal to everyone. And we know that abortion rights is a major issue this year. The authors of the platform should also acknowledge a handful of non-controversial men's issues in the 2024 Party Platform (as opposed to the zero included in 2020 and 2016). A few possibilities:
Support Men's health - men die 5.9 years earlier on average and are less likely to be covered by health insurance.
Prevent "Deaths of Despair" - opioid overdose, suicide, alcoholic liver disease - 130K such deaths among men in 2022 alone. Dems have already been vocal about the opioid issue.
Dismantle the Prison Industrial Complex - men are 93% of inmates. The legalization of marijuana, which Harris supports, is a great step in the right direction here.
Education - only 40% of college students are male; help boys do better in school.
I think including things along these lines, in addition to all of the support for women and girls which will undoubtedly be in the 2024 Democratic Party Platform, will help better appeal to men. Coming from a female candidate in Harris actually strengthens this message; so this is an important opportunity for the Harris campaign.
And then, really focus hard on the men in the 7 swing states — targeted ad campaigns and outreach. Doing all this greatly improves Dems' chances of victory.
Creating an Issue Brief PDF to Share with Legislators and Possible Book Update
Some readers have reached out and asked that I create a short, summarized PDF to share with legislators on the issue of appealing to male voters, so I’m working on that. I will create a separate post and permalink when it’s done!
And just like George Lucas keeps going back and updating Star Wars, given this major change in the election, I will either put out an addendum or perform some revisions to the book. Either way, the book is still completely relevant to this election and the next 20 years, and most of the book will stay the same.
Thanks for reading, and if you don’t have it yet, you can find my book here:
https://www.amazon.com/How-Democrats-Can-Back-Understanding/dp/B0D8CRPT6F