The Democratic Disconnect: Part of A Global and Domestic Gender Divide
A recent FT report shows a global political gender divide among Gen Z; WAPO article focuses on black male voters in Michigan discontent with Biden
As the primary season is following a thus-far predictable path, with Biden and Trump the likely nominees barring some sort of extra-election incident, I want to focus this week on both the macro on micro of male political trends and the voter gender divide.
The primary dataset that I use in my analysis is the national voting polls by gender in presidential elections. When we look at this trend, we see a growing gender gap in voting, with women leaning Democrat, and men leaning Republican. I believe this gap is part of a larger trend in our society of social division, which isn’t healthy. Furthermore, I believe that the Democratic Party needs to address this by focusing on male issues, including them in the official Democratic Party Platform, creating a White House Council on Boys and Men, and addressing male voters directly. Their failure to do so is what I call the Democratic Disconnect, and it is reflected in the graph below.
There were two important articles I would like to comment on this week. First, thanks to a reader from Marin County, CA who sent me John Burn-Burdoch’s piece “A new global gender divide is emerging” from the Financial Times highlighting a global political gender gap specifically with Gen Z women and men. The piece includes a beautiful data visualization showing more or less similar patterns to the US voting trends — a growing gender divide, in South Korea, the US, the UK, and Germany, where Gen Z women are trending liberal, and men conservative. And some of these gaps are alarming: Korea is approximately women +30% liberal, and men -20% conservative, a whopping 50% difference. The Gen Z crowd in the US is not far behind, with women about 40% liberal, and men evenly split, for a 40% gap. Here is that visual, used by permission of the creator (thanks, John!).
Notice how in each country, we are seeing a similar bifurcation — women are trending up, or more liberal, and men are trending down, or more conservative. It’s the same general shape as the US election exit poll graph above. While there is an “all hands on deck” feel to the Democrats’ presidential election push, I believe that there is a larger systemic issue here that needs to be addressed. Why are men leaving the left? And more importantly, can the left get them back? And how can we be more united as a society?
While the focus of my Substack is the US Presidential election, my work and perspective are broader. If we want the left generally to succeed globally, meaning open and fair elections, a clean and sustainable environment, and respect for human and economic rights as opposed to right-wing style dictatorships, then we need to start paying attention to legitimate male issues instead of gaslighting men on an international level. The current “ignore men’s issues and hope they vote for us anyway” approach by the left is not working. I believe the Gen Z data, as well as the US presidential election polls, reflect that.
Second, thank you to a reader from Hawaii who sent me an article from The Washington Post, “Frustrated by Biden, Black men ponder their options,” featuring the discontent of some black male voters in Michigan. As I have pointed out in previous posts, black male voters still lean Democrat, but support has weakened significantly and consistently since Obama garnered 95% of the black male vote in 2008. This piece resonates with me. The author, Michael Brice-Saddler, interviewed a 59 year-old black man from Michigan named Bryan Killian-Bey, who is quoted as saying:
“I’m torn between voting and not voting at all. A lot of us are,” Killian-Bey said. “I don’t think Biden is it, but I don’t see what else is out there.” He wants Democrats to “give me substance. You can’t dangle carrots and assume we’ll vote for you just because we don’t like the other platform.”
That’s not surprising to me. The Democratic Party rarely mentions male issues and hasn’t addressed them through policy. It seems to be hoping male voters are so turned off by Republicans that they vote Democrat. From that high of 95% in 2008, only 79% of black male voters chose Biden in 2020, a steep decline, and the trend seems to be continuing.
These are both important pieces, and I’m glad we’re seeing some attention paid to the male point of view. But I would also point out that it’s not just black men in Michigan, or Gen Z men, who feel frustrated with Biden in particular and with the Democratic party in general. It’s all types of men.
While these articles shed some very important light on the attitudes of men in important demographics, I hope to see mainstream outlets, candidates, and politicians focus on the issues of all men in this election: the thousands of male suicides, opioid deaths, and murders (men are about 78% of murder victims); male homelessness, and life expectancy 5.9 years less than women, just for starters. There’s also the fact that boys are failing out of school in higher numbers, comprise only about 40% of college students, but make up 93% of federal prisoners. There is also the importance of fatherhood and the challenges many fathers encounter in our family courts. What about male reproductive rights? There is a male aspect to all of these problems, and it goes largely unaddressed. That needs to change, and the media and our leaders have an opportunity to play an important role.
Historically, the Democrats have needed to lose the male vote by no more than 8% to win the White House (the “Magic Line” on the graph above), and Biden was right at 8% in 2020. He cannot afford to lose traction with men, as Democrats in office have done historically. Focusing on male issues is an opportunity to build up the Democrat base and secure a White House victory in 2024 — will Biden and the Democrats seize it? So far, I haven’t seen any indications that they are, but I’ll keep watching and communicating with my representatives.
And let me remind that you this is part of what I call the All-demographic Strategy, which includes support for women and girls. Abortion rights are clearly going to be a major issue in this election, and this issue will motivate pro-choice voters. But the highest the Democrats have gotten with women is +16% or so, and it’s unclear how much higher they can go. They need to focus on male voters, as well.
I will be listening intently to the upcoming State of the Union speech…more on that next week. Thanks for reading, and feel free to share this with others, comment, and hit that like button if you appreciate it.