Harris' Honeymoon Over? Plus, Some Good Press and Events
Latest polls show softening enthusiasm for Harris
In this week’s post, I’m sharing my take on the latest polls and an interview of me with Egberto Willies, host of Egberto Off the Record and Politics Done Right! on Pacifica Radio. Egberto also published a positive write-up of How Democrats Can Win Back Men.
I loved speaking with Egberto, and I appreciate that he genuinely got to the core of my message. In his review of the book on his Subtack blog, he wrote:
Identity and demographics play a crucial role in shaping electoral outcomes, Mark W. Sutton’s message comes as both a strategic blueprint and a moral imperative. His book, How Democrats Can Win Back Men, is a call to action for the Democratic Party to address an alarming trend: the consistent loss of male voters over the past five decades. This trend, Sutton argues, is not just a matter of political strategy but also a reflection of broader societal issues that must be addressed if the party is to fulfill its mission of inclusivity and equity.
Here’s the interview recorded in July at Netroots Nation 2024, way back when Biden was still the candidate. Remember those days? Feels like a long time ago. However, as Egberto noted, my thesis is not just focused on 2024, but the coming decades, so the main points are all still relevant and will be for years to come.
Upcoming Events
Sacramento: I was invited to speak at the California State Capitol Rose Garden in Sacramento as part of the nonpartisan rally for International Falsely Accused Day on September 9. The event will take place from 11:45am until 3:00pm. I will be delivering my remarks as part of a program that will include those who have been victims of false accusations and others who are advocates for better awareness and policy on this challenging topic that affects not just the falsely accused themselves, but that person’s family and friends. According to the The National Registry of Exonerations at the University of Michigan, 91% of the thousands who have been officially cleared of crimes for which they were imprisoned were men and disproportionately men of color.
Marin County: I’ve also been invited to present my book How Democrats Can Win Back Men at the Belvedere Tiburon Library as part of their author speaker series. The event is free and open to the public, and will take place on Tuesday, September 17 from 6:00-7:30pm. Please share with anyone in Marin County or the Bay Area who may wish to attend.
Harris Momentum Peaked?
The latest polls from The New York Times/Siena College poll and the CNN Poll of Polls show some softening numbers for Harris, and at this point, the 2024 Presidential race still looks tight. Essentially, the race is tied within the margin of error, but looking at the polls can show us some insights.
Regularly scheduled poll caveats: polls are imperfect, polls fluctuate rapidly, polls vary depending on a number of factors including methodology, and in both of the last two election cycles the polls mostly underestimated Trump’s support.
With that in mind, here are the benchmarks that I look at:
Popular vote. Based on 2016 and 2020 numbers, Harris will likely need to win the popular vote by at least 3.5%, ideally more, to win the electoral college. I consider a 2.5-3.5% margin as a dead heat and a 4.0% margin as a very slight Democratic lead. In the poll of likely voters, Trump polled ahead of Harris in the NYT/Siena poll released Sept. 8 by 49-48% with a margin of error of about 3%. That would mean, according to this poll, the best Harris would be doing among these voters is +2% which is about where Hillary ended up in her loss in 2016 (+2.1%). However, in the CNN Poll of Polls, Harris still leads by 2%. But as I point out, she likely needs to win by at least 3.5% or so (Biden won by 4.5%). So, within the margin of error, she could have a theoretical lead of over 3.5%, but she is on the wrong side of the margin of error. In other words, I wouldn’t say by any stretch that Harris is “ahead” right now, but it’s very close.
Gender Gap. I have shown that in every election in the period since 1972 the Democrats have never won when they have done worse than -8% among men. This updated data point is my favorite little juicy bit of data each time new numbers are released. The current polling results: Harris is -17% among men (39% to 56%), and +11% among women (53% to 42%).
I’m calling this data point “Sutton’s Key” as I believe it is a key to the election for Democrats. Right now, even given the allowance for a margin of error, that number is not looking good for Harris and Democrats. This should be a “hair on fire” moment for the Democrats. Better outreach among men is needed.
Swing States. The seven swing states are a major focus of both campaigns right now, and all of these states are polling very close, more or less within the margin of error. Although the popular vote and gender gap are important indicators, the electoral results in these states (plus Nebraska’s 2nd District) will officially tell the final story. A little over 8 weeks ahead of election day, it’s very, very close in these states.
Lichtman Predicts a Harris Victory
A little good news for Democrats, Prof. Allan Lichtman of 13 Keys Fame has predicted a Harris victory in 2024. Unlike my analysis, which is a retroactive look at the exit polling data, Lichtman claims that his 13 true or false keys predict the winner, which he has done all but one time since he started his predictions in 1984. The one time he was wrong? In 2000, he had predicted Gore. So he is not infallible, though he’s got a pretty good track record. And by the way, Sutton’s Key has been retroactively correct in every election since 1972, including 2000!
Another Historic Debate
This week we get to witness what will likely be yet another historic presidential debate. Grab your popcorn again and buckle your seatbelts!