Book Launch!, Poll Update - Biden -19% with Men - Yikes!!
Official Book Launch Event on June 25, 2024 in San Francisco
Book Launch
I have some exciting news about my debut book, How Democrats Can Win Back Men!
How Democrats Can Win Back Men will be available on Amazon sometime in May! The book looks at ways that the Democratic Party can increase it’s voter base and improve it’s standing among male voters, giving it a much better chance to win both the White House and all-important swing districts in Congress in 2024 and beyond. It has already received some extremely favorable reviews which I will be sharing soon!
We will be hosting an official launch party at Manny’s in San Francisco on June 25 at a date to be determined soon. I’m excited to officially launch the book there as Manny’s was founded by a fellow graduate of Williams College, Manny Yekutiel. Manny’s is a cafe/bookstore/civic gathering space that has hosted such notable speakers as Vice-President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Washington Governor Jay Inslee to name just a few, and has been featured in the New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, and Rolling Stone.
We will be sending out an official Evite invitation in the coming weeks. The doors will open at 5:30pm, with a program from 6-7pm, followed by social conversation from 7-8pm. We hope that anyone in the Bay Area will be able to join, and the program portion will be recorded on video for uploading at a later time
Poll Update - Biden trails men by 19%
On the presidential front, Biden’s polling number are moving very slightly in a good direction. However, I would caution readers to be wary of headlines that say “Biden is ahead in x number of polls…” While this is a good sign, it’s important to remember that due to the malapportionment of electoral votes, a good benchmark is to say that Biden has to win the popular vote by 4%. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.4%, and won by a slim margin in a handful of swing states. So if Biden is “ahead” by 1% in the popular vote, he is still likely trailing in the electoral college.
Right now, according to the Real Clear Politics average in head-to-head between Biden and Trump, Trump is ahead in the popular vote by 0.2%. In reality, that means Biden is trailing by over 4% in what he needs to achieve. And this doesn’t take into account votes for RFK Jr, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Dr. Cornell West, who may all siphon more votes from Biden.
We all know polls can change a lot before the election, and we often see a lot of movement in the three months before the election. However, looking back at the last elections at this time:
In 2020, Biden was at +5.5%. In other words, Biden is 5.7% behind where he was last time.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was at +9.6%, and still lost!
Let’s look at my favorite statistic of all, the split of voting by gender. According to the latest NY Times/Siena poll, here is the data:
In a matchup including the independent candidates, without leaners, Biden is winning women (+17%) and losing men (-19%) which computes to about -1% overall for Biden. In other words, Biden is losing men by 19% yet refuses to conduct outreach directly focused on male voters or discuss male gender issues, at least that I’m aware of. I must say, I don’t understand that strategy. It doesn’t seem to be a winning one, at least not at this point. Since Democrats are doing so well with women voters, if they could just do “okay” with men they would have a much better chance to win.
If you are aware of male voter outreach by the Democratic establishment, especially on the presidential level, please let me know. I haven’t come across it yet.
It’s still early, so a lot can happen, but the current numbers don’t look good for Biden. My concern is that Biden seems to have lost some of the voters he won over in 2020 who had previously voted for Trump. Early indications are that perhaps many of them are switching back.
Two New York Times Articles on Male Voters
Thanks to two readers, one from Maryland and another from New York State, who shared two articles on male voters with me. While I am happy to see major outlets cover men’s perspectives, I have some bones to pick with both articles: These Nine Men Voted for Biden in 2020. How Do They See Him Now?, and The Atmosphere of the ‘Manosphere’ Is Toxic. I’ll save those items for next week.
Thanks for reading! Please share, like, comment, and keep sending me articles. I’ve received a lot great resources from readers — thank you!