Biden ahead? Kind of...
plus: Book update -- "How Democrats Can Win Back Men" available soon; Book Talk in San Francisco JULY 25 and a news roundup
A lot of people have gotten excited about a recent Fox News poll showing Biden ahead by 2% and the 538.com aggregate showing Biden ahead by 0.2% in the popular vote. While better poll numbers are absolutely a good thing for Biden, let’s remember that being ahead in the popular vote doesn’t mean he’s ahead in a projected electoral count.
Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016 and lost the Electoral College 227-304. Biden won by 4.5% in 2020, and won by a similar amount, 306-232. So Biden being ahead in one poll by 2% (keeping in mind the margin of error) and by 0.2% in an aggregate, while encouraging, doesn’t really mean he’s “ahead” in terms of electoral victory. In fact, he’s still behind in terms of electoral projections. Positive momentum, however, is a good development.
I think Democrats should at a minimum look for a consistent 4.5+% lead in the popular vote as a truly good sign. Is that fair? I don’t think so, and that’s why I believe we should abolish the Electoral College. But that’s easier said than done.
Book update
My book How Democrats Can Win Back Men has taken a little longer than expected to finish. The content is now complete, and I’m just waiting on the final proof and then it will be live. Thanks for your patience! As a first-time author, it has been a bit of a learning curve, but I’m excited for the upcoming release and book talk which will now take place on July 25 at 6pm (not June as originally scheduled) in San Francisco at Manny’s with free tickets available via Eventbrite. Please help spread the word to anyone you know in the Bay Area!
News Roundup
There have been many developments regarding men and the election recently that I’ve been following:
One controversial issue: a proposal for automatic Selective Service registration for men, and a call from Senate Democrats for women to register, as well.
Biden “Commends and Welcomes” 175,000 marijuana pardons in the state of Maryland; many of these people are likely men, though the announcement doesn’t delve into details. This is a good step toward dismantling the prison-industrial complex that largely affects men.
There have been several high-profile articles on how young male voters have been becoming more conservative as opposed to young female voters (CNN and Brookings). I consider this a natural outcome of the gender divide that we have been seeing for the last 50 years. It’s just reached younger people now.
The New York Times printed an article looking at Democrats and gender — very much along the lines of my work! (Thanks to a reader from Silicon Valley for the heads up!) However, while noting the gender gap among voters, the author focuses only on solutions to get more women to vote Democrat, not men, which is different than my All Demographic Strategy which focuses on all voters.
This week: THE DEBATE! This may be one of the more interesting debates we’ve seen. I wish RFK, Jr. were allowed to speak, but the two-party system won’t allow it. Manny’s is hosting a watch party which I will attend. This debate is happening much earlier than expected, but I will be listening to hear which candidate reaches out to male voters. Doing so is essential, and thus far in the campaign, Biden has for the most part not called out to men specifically. We’re 48.7% of the voters, Joe, got anything for us?
Thanks for reading — please feel free to like, comment, and share!
I think this such an important and timely Substack. Every Democratic candidate, especially the president and his staff, should read this regularly. And Mark's book, "How Democrats Can Win Back Men." That could be the key to the presidential election, and possibly others as well.
Great coverage of a crucial issue...